AFRICA-CHINA-US TRILATERAL DIALOGUE
Report of the second meeting of the Trilateral Dialogue
Convened by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Beijing, March 5-6, 2007
Co-hosted by
The Leon H. Sullivan Foundation, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Brenthurst Foundation and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
Introduction
The emergence of China in Africa is arguably the most important development to impact on the continent since the end of the Cold War. At the same time, the United States and other Western governments have begun to focus on Africa as never before. This is taking place in a multi-lateral context, especially through the G8, as well as bilaterally. Foreign assistance levels are at historic highs and investment in Africa is growing, especially in extractive sectors. While Africa is experiencing strong economic growth and a steady increase in democratic governance, poverty is also growing and several conflicts continue without the prospect of near term resolution. Against this backdrop, the Leon H. Sullivan foundation, the Council on Foreign Relations, the Brenthurst Foundation in South Africa and the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences agreed to engage in a three meeting dialogue. The purpose of the project is to identify ways to enhance cooperation among China, the U.S. and African countries in order to enhance social and economic development in Africa.
The first meeting of the Trilateral Dialogue, held at the Tswalu Kalahari Reserve in August 2006, early on reached a consensus that there was not a strategic conflict between China and the United States in Africa, but rather areas of mutual interest as well as areas of competition—and some areas of important differences. The meeting served to clarify the general views of each delegation on priorities, and on perceptions of both common interests and differences. It was agreed that the second meeting would examine principles that both China and the United States, in conjunction with Africa, might follow in assisting Africa and in promoting investment as well as areas of possible cooperation between China and the United States in Africa. Questions about governance, regions of conflict, and the environment arose in the discussions which could be analyzed in the context of such principles.
This report is from the second meeting held in Beijing in March 2007. The theme of the meetings was “Towards African Development and Win-Win Cooperation.” There were a large number of observers at the Beijing meeting, primarily from other Chinese think tanks and government departments. There was valuable interchange with this broader Chinese representation during the meeting and at lunches and dinners which enriched the discussion.
The Chinese Perspective: The Chinese delegation presentations underscored the complexity of China’s engagement in Africa.
Perhaps most fundamental was the question of whether African nations can replicate China’s road to development, or is that road closed off to Africa. While debating that point, there was agreement that only a very few countries have benefited from an over-reliance on the extractive sectors.
The Chinese delegation noted that 2006 was the year of China’s diplomacy in Africa and, in fact, a strategic relationship has been forged between China and Africa. This is predicated on China being the world’s largest developing country. South-south cooperation, therefore, is in the interests of all developing countries. China has been very proactive in developing a broad range of initiatives in Africa, including 30 anti-malaria centers and 100 new agricultural schools.
China has a number of objectives in Africa. These include promoting security, developing energy resources, helping Africa embrace globalization and improving health and education. Naturally, there are points of divergence and convergence in working to achieve these goals but the Chinese emphasized the need to improve relations through cooperation.
Chinese participants noted that African countries have a new opportunity to “own” their decisions over development and other issues, especially given the demise of the Cold War. At the same time, it is apparent that not all African countries have benefited equally from globalization. As one Chinese scholar put it, “It is the responsibility of the world community to help Africa develop but, at the same time, Africa must adapt to increased globalization.”
The delegation recalled the consensus in the first meeting that there is no strategic conflict between the US and China in Africa. As one CASS scholar pointed out, China does not compete with the US for spheres of influence or supremacy. Moreover, the concept of zero-sum does not exist in US-Chinese relations. The recent six party talks on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula is the most recent example of this.
Business competition in Africa will take place but that is not necessarily a negative. After all, China, as the world’s largest developing country, has experiences to share, especially in the private sector, and this can benefit Africa as the continent becomes more important in global affairs.
In terms of the differences with the US, the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries is a key principle of China’s foreign policy. Moreover, China and the world have a responsibility to protect and this is one area that China and the US can cooperate. According to a Chinese scholar, the outside world should not push Africa to democratize too fast. Consensus politics is more important than elections. As it concerns human rights, this is an issue of national sovereignty, and other countries should not interfere.
As for good governance, one Chinese scholar reminded the delegates that all nations are governed by a series of UN principles which lay out a framework to promote cooperation in all aspects of humanity. These frameworks address a range of issues that need to be respected such as combating terrorism, protecting refugees and working with the UN Security Council. The African convention on combating corruption is another important set of principles that need to be respected.
It is also apparent, in the view of the Chinese delegates, that there is no consensus on a definition of good governance. Given the challenge of establishing a modern society, there should be recognition that strong economic development can be built under authoritarian regimes. Nevertheless, China gives its aid in Africa with no strings attached and recipient countries play a major role in deciding how to utilize that assistance. China has forgiven substantial Africa’s debt to China and provided concessional loans and technical training. The role of reciprocity in foreign relations is very important and international cooperation should be increased. There is also a need to be realistic in situations such as Darfur and not use a double standard (referring to U.S. political and business involvement in some countries with questionable human rights records).
Chinese delegates advocated providing more support to agriculture and ensuring that more technology transfers take place. China has also paid a lot of attention to the sequence of development and carefully timing the introduction of certain factors. However, it should be accepted that there is no Chinese model of development that Africa should follow. China, nevertheless, has come to understand that investment based growth strategies are more effective than aid based strategies. When it comes to economic development, China, as one proverb suggests, is crossing the river by feeling the stones.
The African perspective: Citing former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, an African delegate pointed out that despite a growing interest in the continent, it is essential to avoid another scramble for Africa. In fact, agreements should be fair and stand the test of time. At the first meeting of the Trilateral Dialogue in South Africa, African delegates underscored that China and the US are Africa’s most important commercial partners. As a result, there is a need to revisit Africa’s present and future priorities to determine how the US and China can best support the achievement of these priorities. Africa is looking toward a level playing field on global trade and good governance and reduced leakages into wrong hands. In the African view, there is a need for increased resource mobilization, especially debt relief and China and the US can help in this respect.
Another African delegate posed a series of questions that impacted on the Chinese and American presence in Africa. For one, is there a new aid paradigm, given the commitment to increase aid flows from the US and China? More specifically, when it comes to Africa’s development can the divergent interests of the US and China be reconciled to Africa’s benefit? And how does Africa handle the increased interest of the US and China in its commodities?
It was also pointed that poverty reduction is at the top of NEPAD’s agenda. Another focus is on agricultural workers in rural areas.
It was added that, from the African perspective, there is no reason to believe that the US and China will cooperate automatically. In fact there are obstacles to cooperation. For example, it will not be easy for Africa to move up the industrial ladder because Asia dominates the light manufacturing sectors of global production. As a result, Africa will have to rely more on exploiting its natural resources and using the revenues much more effectively. China and the US can help Africa the most by strengthening institutions to ensure that these resources are accounted for and invested in human and national development.
While there was considerable discussion about Africa’s commodities, one African delegate underscored the importance of not looking at Africa exclusively through the lens of energy production and consumption. This is important because Africa has its own strategic needs which stem from the fact that the continent is negatively integrated into the global economy in part due to its over-reliance on commodities. Therefore we have to be very clear about how cooperation between China and the US can help Africa achieve diversified and sustainable growth. This cooperation needs to be extended to civil society which is also important to the development process.
One African delegate commented that it was important to be candid about the differences in US and Chinese involvement on the continent. For example, African governments want development as their first priority while Western governments tend to emphasize policies that focus on improved governance and accelerated growth. China, on the other hand, believes that civil society is not a substitute for national leadership and that China’s primary relations are with government. China, it was noted, does not change its policy if the government changes which also can lead to challenges.
An African delegate noted that Africa has taken great strides forward, illustrated by the success of the African Union, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development and the African Peer Review Mechanism. The refusal by the AU to recognize unconstitutional seizures of power is another significant development.
As for the situation in Darfur, an African delegate said that the US needs to ensure that it follows through on its commitment to give training assistance to the African stabilization force. At first, the AU went to the UN to help resolve the problem in Darfur. The major problem emerged when the AU couldn’t sustain its peacekeeping effort. China and the US should help, and UN decisions should be binding. Peacekeeping operations should be funded and the UN should have authority.
The American Perspective: The American delegation acknowledged that there are legitimate areas of commercial competition between China and the United States in Africa, and it would be helpful to identify rules of the road in order to minimize the negative aspects of this competition.
An American delegate noted that Africa is “in play” like never been before. While the continent could receive as much as $50 billion annually in development assistance by 2010, we have to be honest about the challenges. It is projected that in 2030, for example, Africa will be the only region in which absolute poverty will still exist. The threat of climate change also has negative consequences for Africa as it could lead to enhanced droughts and flooding. Therefore with per capita food production declining, we have to ask if we have developed the appropriate science and technologies for Africa. The question becomes: how can we cooperate to break the back of the most immediate challenges, such as malaria and AIDS.
With regards to the use of Africa’s energy resources, the US and China have common security interests. China relies on Africa for 25 percent of its imports and the US receives 15 percent of its imports from Africa and that figure is rising. This reliance, which provides a framework for common interests in the energy sector, is increasing for both the US and China. For example, there is agreement on the need for security of supply and price, and the need for access to acreage. At the same time, Africa needs security of demand and stable prices and income. For other African countries, they need steady prices.
At the same time, the US and China have different strategies for the way in which they approach the African energy market. The US encourages transparent bidding while China seeks exclusive access to supply through subsidized loans or by adding aid elements to its competitive bids. In short, the difference between the American and Chinese approach is found in the promotion of competitive tenders versus the preference for closed deals or less than transparent subsidies. There is no question that transparency is the most effective way to promote sustainable development through commodity earnings. China, which is relatively new to the African energy market, can benefit from the mistakes that the US has made in West Africa’s energy sector, e.g. environmental damage, government corruption, and ignoring for too long social and economic disparities.
Another American delegate made the point that coordination is essential when it comes to conflict resolution because civil wars do not solve themselves and entire regions can be infected by them. At the same time, it matters which states intervene in the effort to resolve conflicts, and it is essential to remember that it is easier to get involved in a conflict than it is to get out. One priority for conflict resolution is to increase the capacity of mediation, especially upgrading the capacity of UN envoys, AU diplomats and peace keeping forces. China is increasing the number of troops it makes available to peacekeeping operations, and this is a welcome development. In the Sudan, there is an absence of cohesion in the CPA, and there is no unity of effort. In Dafur, the worst of the genocide may be over but violence continues and the peace process is stalled.
In the view of another American delegate, Africa does not have a satisfactory mechanism for peacekeeping, especially in peace enforcement. This has led to various external interventions, including by the British and French. At the same time, no one has volunteered to disarm the FDLR in the Congo. This lack of African peacekeeping capability puts the continent at a disadvantage. To make matters worse, the goal of training an AU intervention force of 75,000 by 2010 will not be met even though the G8 has put this issue on their agenda. There was agreement with the principle of protecting sovereignty and non-interference. However, the world has also signed on to the responsibility to protect. Unfortunately the Permanent 5 in the Security Council has looked the other way in too many instances where such protection is needed.
Taking a different tack, an American delegate said that it is apparent that poverty is a major source of conflict in Africa. Governance, or the lack of it, is also an important factor. At the same time, we should give more opportunities for Africans to solve African problems. African interests should be considered first. We need a balance between non-interference and non-indifference. We can not let another Rwanda occur. We need multilateralism not unilateralism, and we need to use the UN. We need more communication between the US, China and Africa. The Trilateral Dialogue is a good beginning.
Another American delegate noted that the majority of countries in Africa are relatively stable and the building of democracy is basically correct. The peer review mechanism is an effective means to monitor governance. In order to support these positive trends, many African countries need foreign direct investment and technology transfer. NEPAD also needs support from the US and China as do regional initiatives. Despite these positive trends, there is a concern that Africa’s security situation will be overtaken by an anti-terrorist campaign.
In terms of accelerating African development, an American delegate emphasized the importance of strengthening the capacity of entrepreneurs and civil society organizations. It was also noted that corruption and crime are the largest taxes on development. In comparing development in China and East Asia, the point was made that most countries in the region pursued sound economic strategies, were effective in attracting FDI, and were successful in developing their human resources.
Whether China can serve as a development model for Africa remains to be seen. For example, in a generation, China gone from the thirtieth largest in global trade to the third largest. It is also a country that has thousands of years of centralized management and effective bureaucracy. As for China’s unconditional loans in Africa, it is too soon to know if they will work. There is no question they represent a genuine risk.
Statement of principles. The American delegation circulated in advance of the meeting a draft statement of principles that might guide external aid and business involvement in Africa. The delegations at Beijing preferred not to address that paper. But the African delegation produced its proposed statement of principles at the closing session. (copy attached). It addresses issues such as governance, the environment, support for African priorities, etc. This paper will be studied by the three delegations in preparation for the third meeting.
Next Steps: The three delegations agreed that they would consult on dates for the third and final meeting to be held in Washington. The proposed dates are in early September. They agreed that the final meeting should focus, in addition to the African paper on principles, on success stories and areas in which there might be collaboration between the Americans and Chinese in support of Africa’s development objectives. Health and agriculture, as well as peacekeeping and security were mentioned in particular.
Participants:
Professor Ru Xin, Member Academic Committee, CASS
Professor Yu Yongding, Director, Institute of World Economic and Politics, CASS
Professor Yang Guang, Director, Institute of West Asian and African Studies, CASS
Professor Tao Wenzhao, Senior Fellow, Institute of American studies, CASS
Professor Zhang Hongming, Dep Dir, Institute of West Asian and African Studies, CASS
Professor Zgang Youyun, Deputy Director, International Cooepration Bureau, CASS
Professor Yang Lihua, Senior Fellow, Institute of West Asian and African Studies, CASS
Professor Li Zhibiao, Senior Fellow, Institute of West Asian and African Studies, CASS
Professor He Wenping, Sr. Fellow, Institute of West Asian and African Studies, CASS
Professor Cui Yongqian, Former ambassador to African countries
Professor Xu Weizhong, Senior Fellow, China Inst. of Contemporary International Rel
Professor Wang Hongyi, Senior Fellow, China Institute of International Studies
Professor William Lyakura, Director, African Economic Research Consortium, Kenya
Mr. Patrick Mazimhaka, Deputy Chair, Commission for the African Union
Mr. Sydney Mufamadi, Minister for Provincial and Local Government, South Africa
Mr. Edmund Daukoru, Nigerian Minister of Energy
Dr. Lopo do Nascimento, National Centre for Social Development, Angola
Mr. Michael Spicer, CEO, Business Leadership, South Africa
Ambassador Joe Mollo, Former ambassador of Lesotho to UK, Canada and Denmark
Mr. Mauro do Lorenzo, American Enterprise Institute, USA
Dr. Greg Mills, Director, Brenthurst Foundation, South Africa
Professor, Stephen Chan, SOAS, London School of Economics
Professor Jeffery Herbst, Provost, Miami University, USA
R. Adm. Steve Stead, Brenthurst Foundation, South Africa
H.E. Mrs. Naomi Majinda, Botswana’s Ambassador to China
Ambassador Princeton Lyman, Council on Foreign Relations
Ambassador Andrew Young, Leon H. Sullivan Foundation
Dr. Witney Schneidman, Leon H. Sullivan Foundation
Ambassador Stapleton Roy, Kissinger Associates
Ambassador Nancy Soderberg, former ambassador to the UN
Dr. Chester Crocker, Georgetown University
David Goldwyn, former Assistant Secretary of Energy
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